AFTER
THE RAIN WILL THERE BE SUNSHINE FOR NIGERIA?
By Kay Aderibigbe
It rained a lot of socio-economic hot water on Nigerians between
2010 and 2015; and up till now our political garments are still wet. Some had
serious economic cold, some incurred irreparable physical damage while some
died. The rain gathered storm at the time majority crave it but we didn't
foresee discomfort and pains contained in it because our people gave their
hearts to the government of Jonathan the way we are all singing 'change' now.
The
manner in which Jonathan's government dilly-dallied without purposefulness on
so many important public issues simply eroded his popularity and paved the way
for shift of allegiance by Nigerians, except those that eat directly from
federal government e.g. legislators, oil marketers, political officials and co.
One thing has to be underlined in whatever perspective anybody might want to
assess Mr. Jonathan's government, that is the position of 'prebendal politics'.
May be that Muhammadu Buhari took notice of by importing Eric Bourdon's line of
"I belong to everyone because i belong to no one" in his inaugural
speech.
Prof.
Richard Joseph in 1987, in his "Democracy and Prebendal Politics in
Nigeria: The Rise and Fall of the Second Republic" stated that "prebendalism is when political office holders put the
state resources in their care to their own personal use because they do not
perceive the people as the rightful owner of the resources".
Politics in Nigeria since first republic is typical of prebendal mannerism
because of ethnic division that warranted dispersed federal system of
government. Consequently, federalism is the root of political failure and
dysfunctionality.
The
situation seems irremediable because the
nucleus of federalism in Nigeria is 'federal character', being the basis for
political appointment into all arms of government. I referred to the concept of
'office-for-the-highest-bidder' in my last article as the basis for party
representation, really , that method is profoundly erected on the principle of
federal character or quota system. This is why each state must produce Ministers, Directors of Ministries
and parastatals whether they are daft, dumb, capable or not. Since we placed
ethnic representation above capability and efficiency the end result is likely
to be dysfuntionalism.
In
comparative politics what we normally ask is why did a system succeeded or
failed? Why did many regimes failed in Nigeria? It is simple logic. The
structure of governance is the rudder that regularly sinks the ship of Nigerian
state. In the face of this kind of evidence it is
difficult to maintain that all actions and processes of thought will automatically
lead to methods of transition from political upheaval and economic
disintegration to its abatement.
Certain
problems await the Buhari's government. Firstly, 'it will be thrown into
indefinite actions'. A society erected on the platform of ethnic chauvinism and
religious bigotry will always expect more from the regime that has little to
operate with. Secondly, political regime cannot be divorced from the idea of
elite-self-rule. In fact, Buhari himself is a product of the same system. Since
political office holders are quite aware of the 'ring nature of the political
business' as such they produce rule that are integral to the safety and
continuity of the ‘elite self-propagation in politics’. These two different bipods i.e. the poor, but expectant and the rich
but conservative and greedy with power, form the opponents against which the
government we are expecting changes from would have to wrestle.
Salvation
campaigns by politicians since second republic had yielded nothing, rather, it
ended in more bastardization of the system and economic strangulation of the
people. I still wallow in abject confusion and surprise when our people look up
to the government for redemption. The same politicians are recycled through
partisan politics at different times, and the same people still feature in our
political lives all the time.
This is
the most favourable sort of case where there is a prima facie ground for
terminating state of 'satisfaction' enjoyed by politicians; for in most cases the
impediment to good governance is studiously planted in the system while whoever
intended to rule well is simply made look like a nuisance to the public since our people
believe that politicians are heretics of their own principles.
In one
word, changes required in Nigeria is more than a wish. It is going to be a
social re-engineering; a concerted effort; legislative struggle and ideological
war against abnormality and aberration that has become a model of governmental
operation since the era of oil boom. The questions in my mind are many: How do
we start? How will Buhari go about it? Is it a case of we against them? What do
we have to give as Nigerians? Can Buhari fight it alone? Is he going to disappoint
us? Is he going to fail like his predecessors? Will he become a public enemy
through his policies? I think only time will tell.
