AFTER THE RAIN WILL THERE BE SUNSHINE FOR NIGERIA?

AFTER THE RAIN WILL THERE BE SUNSHINE FOR NIGERIA?

By Kay Aderibigbe

It rained a lot of socio-economic hot water on Nigerians between 2010 and 2015; and up till now our political garments are still wet. Some had serious economic cold, some incurred irreparable physical damage while some died. The rain gathered storm at the time majority crave it but we didn't foresee discomfort and pains contained in it because our people gave their hearts to the government of Jonathan the way we are all singing 'change' now.

 

The manner in which Jonathan's government dilly-dallied without purposefulness on so many important public issues simply eroded his popularity and paved the way for shift of allegiance by Nigerians, except those that eat directly from federal government e.g. legislators, oil marketers, political officials and co. One thing has to be underlined in whatever perspective anybody might want to assess Mr. Jonathan's government, that is the position of 'prebendal politics'. May be that Muhammadu Buhari took notice of by importing Eric Bourdon's line of "I belong to everyone because i belong to no one" in his inaugural speech.

 

Prof. Richard Joseph in 1987, in his "Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria: The Rise and Fall of the Second Republic" stated that "prebendalism is when political office holders put the state resources in their care to their own personal use because they do not perceive the people as the rightful owner of the resources". Politics in Nigeria since first republic is typical of prebendal mannerism because of ethnic division that warranted dispersed federal system of government. Consequently, federalism is the root of political failure and dysfunctionality.

 

The situation seems irremediable because  the nucleus of federalism in Nigeria is 'federal character', being the basis for political appointment into all arms of government. I referred to the concept of 'office-for-the-highest-bidder' in my last article as the basis for party representation, really , that method is profoundly erected on the principle of federal character or quota system. This is why each state must produce Ministers, Directors of Ministries and parastatals whether they are daft, dumb, capable or not. Since we placed ethnic representation above capability and efficiency the end result is likely to be dysfuntionalism.

 

In comparative politics what we normally ask is why did a system succeeded or failed? Why did many regimes failed in Nigeria? It is simple logic. The structure of governance is the rudder that regularly sinks the ship of Nigerian state. In the face of this kind of evidence it is difficult to maintain that all actions and processes of thought will automatically lead to methods of transition from political upheaval and economic disintegration to its abatement.

 

Certain problems await the Buhari's government. Firstly, 'it will be thrown into indefinite actions'. A society erected on the platform of ethnic chauvinism and religious bigotry will always expect more from the regime that has little to operate with. Secondly, political regime cannot be divorced from the idea of elite-self-rule. In fact, Buhari himself is a product of the same system. Since political office holders are quite aware of the 'ring nature of the political business' as such they produce rule that are integral to the safety and continuity of the ‘elite self-propagation in politics’. These two different bipods i.e. the poor, but expectant and the rich but conservative and greedy with power, form the opponents against which the government we are expecting changes from would have to wrestle.

 

Salvation campaigns by politicians since second republic had yielded nothing, rather, it ended in more bastardization of the system and economic strangulation of the people. I still wallow in abject confusion and surprise when our people look up to the government for redemption. The same politicians are recycled through partisan politics at different times, and the same people still feature in our political lives all the time.

This is the most favourable sort of case where there is a prima facie ground for terminating state of 'satisfaction' enjoyed by politicians; for in most cases the impediment to good governance is studiously planted in the system while whoever intended to rule well is simply made look like a nuisance to the public since our people believe that politicians are heretics of their own principles.

 

In one word, changes required in Nigeria is more than a wish. It is going to be a social re-engineering; a concerted effort; legislative struggle and ideological war against abnormality and aberration that has become a model of governmental operation since the era of oil boom. The questions in my mind are many: How do we start? How will Buhari go about it? Is it a case of we against them? What do we have to give as Nigerians? Can Buhari fight it alone? Is he going to disappoint us? Is he going to fail like his predecessors? Will he become a public enemy through his policies? I think only time will tell.