BOKO HARAM: belligerency coagulated by some northern greedy elites but later made a national problem.

BOKO HARAM: belligerency coagulated by some northern greedy elites but later made a national problem.

The roots of Boko Haram (Jama'at as Sunnah lid-Da'wah Wa'l-Jihad) could be traced to a period when some northern Governors, led by the then Zamfara state Governor, Ahmed Sani Yarima, immediately after the rebirth of democracy in 1999, came up with the idea of Sharia law. One thing remained a mystery to politicians down south and political analysts about the Sharia call - a larger percentage of northern Nigeria had been practicing Sharia system even before colonization, while the imperialists kept their own part of the suzerainty bargain by allowing a sort of differential judicial system to flourish around 1914-1960 in the South and North of Nigeria respectively (Razak Adefulu, 2008). Yet, some northern political albatross were bent on anaesthetizing the vast uneducated northern population in the name of Sharia for some reasons best known to them.

The above preamble is a political systematic pointer to the fact that the desire of these northern Governors to institute a needless 'fast and furious second phase' of Sharia was probably meant to arrange a grand cover up for some surreptitious anti-state, anti-unity, anti-Nigerian and pro-Islamist/northern elitists agenda which may or have to remain asymptomatic for a very long time, based on their projections.

The so much propagated Sharia actually blossomed in fecundity and various splinter groups emerged from the myriad of religious sects that were active in the North. One of those splinter groups, known as Boko Haram was led by Muhammed Yusuf. According to their leader, his goal was to "purify Islam in northern Nigeria". Thusly, the group was able to appeal to few irrational elites and majority of impoverished, uneducated socially relegated class of people called 'Almajiris'. Muhammed grew in influence and his charisma was gradually becoming archetypal of the radical Muhammed Marwa (Maitatsine), who was slain by the military regime of the second republic. As a result of his fundamentalism, the federal government of Nigeria wrongfully, against the advice of the United Nations, summarily executed him in detention and a police cover up story was created thereafter; consequent upon this, his followers became uncontrollable.

Apart from the death of Muhammed Yusuf, some other factors could be said to have exacerbated the metamorphosis of Boko Haram into a full scale violence monger and a terrorist organization. At first, some untouchable northern political big wigs who are engaged in the clandestine business of illegal mining of our collective mineral resources employed the services of Boko Haram foot soldiers for security purposes by arming them and strategically placing them as watch dogs over illegal cartel.  Majority of these boys gained economic consciousness along the line and they fell out of favour with their masters. Invariably, they preferred to be seen as public enemies in the name of what I term ‘self-defined Islam’, rather than serve those that are milking the existence of the entire society. Since these boys do not really have anything to show for their servitude in the first place, they seemed justified based on their consciences and irrational belief system.

Another factor that aided the progression of Boko Haram could be buttressed by the analysis of Stephen Davis, the former Anglican clergyman who used to negotiate with Boko Haram. According to him "many of these Islamist extremists were at one time or the other on the payroll of some big northern politicians because they constitute a useful formidable force that could wreck havoc, kidnap, kill, disjoint or disrupt gathering of any sort at the behest of their master(s)" ... emphasis added. (Lamb Christina, Sunday Times, 20^th of March 2016).

 In a similar manner in which the various militia groups in the South were illegally empowered with firearms and later abandoned to figure out what to do on their own, after their patrons/promoters must have attained the so much coveted political office(s), Boko Haram members were also left in the cold, egregiously used; and dumped by the same political class who once paid them for committing atrocious acts.

Thirdly, the issue of poverty, social inequality, lack of education and almost near absence of responsible government in the lives/situations of the generality of the core North population, most especially the Almajiri hordes, also, contributed to the change of mentality of the Boko Haram members in such a way that made them embrace terror as an escape/revenge/second plan or change of life route out of their dilemma. These and numerous cases of extra Judicial killings of the sect members endeared them to international Islamist apologist groups such as Al-Shabaab, Hamas and Al-Qaeda, who are always ready to sponsor extremism in the midst of profound penury and religious fanaticism.

Series of violent campaigns which earned Boko Haram a serious international terrorist ranking started after their leader was killed on the 30th of July 2009. The group had since then moved from launching of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) to massive killings, multitudinous abduction and outright pledging of allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). Boko Haram now goes by the name Islamic State's West Africa Province (IWSAP). The velocity of the group's involvement in terrorism has been on a tremendous increase since September 8th 2010, when a prison break was carried out in Bauchi state and 150 of its members were rescued.

If Boko Haram would be decimated I think it should have been in the year 2011 when the federal government earmarked 20% of our budget for the purpose of addressing insecurity. Anytime any government anywhere spends $5.5 billion to fight terrorism like we did in that year the resultant effect is always evident in the level of relative peace, social cohesion and positive development of the security architecture of the state. But the reverse was the case in Nigeria because for instance, over 190 people died in Kano state when Boko Haram stuck with bomb on the 20th of January, 2012. What a sad simple test on the security components of the Nigerian state!

The miasma of defeat that wafted in the air within the Nigerian security formations in that year alone culminated in the hoisting of Boko Haram's flag in states where Governors and military chiefs exist. The Human Rights Watch and the U.S Bureau of counter terrorism carried out their own independent investigations, but failed to appreciate the 'Nigerian factors' by concluding that Boko Haram members would probably desist from acts of terror if they get social and economic justice. Western world did not reckon with the fact that the concept of Boko Haram is a booming business both for the terrorists and the handlers of the Nigerian security apparatus. In fact, the effervescence of the institutional capacity of Boko Haram could be felt outside Nigeria in places like Niger Republic, Chad and Cameroon.

The sophistry with which Boko Haram operates became incomprehensible to the Nigerian government while this prompted an annual increase in the budgetary allocation for security which invariably serves as a 'veritable rich pot of soup' for the military chiefs. The sect waxed stronger and the then president, Goodluck Jonathan, eventually accepted and stated equivocally on January 8th, 2012 that Boko Haram has links in the military, police and the legislative arm of Nigerian government. 

The same problem faced by past political dispensations is the same dilemma confronting the regime of president Buhari because despite the relocation of the Nigerian armed forces operational station to the North East, though, some positive results were visibly acknowledged within the first four weeks the decision was made (Boko Haram retreated to the Mandara Mountains near Cameroon border), the move later proved to be a mere populist adventure in that officer corps of the Nigerian Army still complain bitterly of poor welfare, lack of adequate arms, perforation of coded systematic information and contradictory orders in the heat of onslaught or counter attacks. Consequently, we have witnessed increase in the number of victories on the path of Boko Haram group, lack of motivation for Nigerian soldiers, dissenting in form of refusal to fight or disagreement among superior and junior officers, and outright deserting of the army by those officers who soldiers said 'we do not understand what we were doing'.

The very phase where we are as a nation on the issue of Boko Haram is that phase of stage-managing the terrorists crises; because we have come to realize that this present political regime, just like the past, and its predecessors, is made up of propagandists, sycophants, lobbyists, clowns and bootlickers, but this time with the inclusion of some ethnocentric and religiously tinted irresponsible political psychopaths, who do not know what to do in government but are bent on staying in power for the sake of power.

We now pay huge and undisclosed ransom to Boko Haram at this stage to secure the release of those abducted en masse. Boko Haram even negotiates an unconditional release of some certain ranks of its officers before they accept our ransom. This phase is where we release, train, re-orientate some captured or willingly surrendered Boko Haram members and even, recruit them into the Nigerian Army.

At this level of nationally stage-managing the Boko Haram crises Nigerians do not know how much the security vote is anymore. Nigerians do not get to see what Boko Haram does on the TV anymore. Nigerians do not know the fates of over 2.3 million people displaced by the Boko Haram insurgency. We are now at a stage where we are at loss as to the capacity of the impending peril launchable by the devilish sect.

Part of the stage-managing effects is when the minister of information told us that Boko Haram has been technically defeated but we still perceive the ubiquity of the sect in the North East and beyond. The last straw that broke the camel's back in our situation is that, the success of Boko Haram as a group has metastasized countrywide into banditry  across the North; while kidnapping, raping and ruthless killings is the version in the South. The whole of these dramas, its daily implications and the trauma is now being accompanied by near total or absolute neglect by the government of the day.

We do not know what will become of Nigeria in the hands of Boko Haram because our own brand of terrorism is quite peculiar to Nigeria - just like our brand of corruption, politics, tribalism, religion, institutional failure and all of that.  In fact, another Boko Haram is in the making. The case of Al-zakzaky is similar to that of Muhammed Yusuf. It may look as if the Shiites do not have enough support due to its mild Islamic fundamentalism, but the moment their leader dies in detention, either of natural death or state-arranged his followers will become another set of terrorists we will have to deal with as a nation. 

How can we end/curb/cage or seriously engage insurgency, terrorism and religious fundamentalism?  Okay, let us first of all pretend as if we have reasonable rulers in Nigeria and as such, attempt the question with seriousness and patriotism. We have to understand that this trend of terrorism will not just go away in the name of prayer, blame game, partisan politics or wishful thinking; it is going to be through a holistic societal propagation and ideological underpinning.

The first thing is to harness all productive resources, be it stolen or grown, for the liberalization of the economy in order to achieve a near equilibrium employment/production of locally consumed goods, and in the long run redistribute social and economic wealth across the societal pyramid.

Secondly, free and compulsory education at all levels pending a period when the volume of Nigeria's export can be said to be inversely proportional to the inflationary gap created by exchange rate.

Thirdly, a complete overhaul of the current unreasonable centripetal federal structure we operate in Nigeria.  Restructuring to the old regional government is sacrosanct so that all the regions can develop at their respective pace. This will take care of fundamental issues such as: laws, social amenities and local government.

Lastly, social re-engineering is non-debatable at the regional level, so that the various regional ideologies can be all-encompassing and all-conditioning. This will eventually aim to re-orientate and re-position the citizenry in the light of what government entails and how the people should perceive their society.

Farmers and herdsmen clashes: one of the agonizing features of a dysfunctional state.

Farmers and herdsmen clashes: one of the agonizing features of a dysfunctional state.

Mr. Danladi Cirona, the chairman north central wing of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, on Sunday 24th of June 2018, was said to have released a statement which confirmed that over one hundred people who were killed a day before in Riyom, Barkin Ladi and Jos south areas of Plateau state lost their lives in a retaliatory attacks carried out by an organized Fulani cattle rearing bandits and their mercenaries. This very statement, he later denied, while the investigation that was supposed to follow the phone conversation he had with the lead editor of the media house which first reported the issue went silent and the reporter eventually came on air to dissociate Mr. Danladi from the statement that was earlier accredited to him.


Well, the crux of the matter in this case is that one has to put the analysis in this tone in order to make a case for or against whoever our security agency or panel of inquiry is going to hold responsible at the end of the day. At least these mass killings, unlike that of Benue state, points directly to a group of people (Fulanis), which makes it crystal clear for a responsible government that craves imperatives of state as espoused by Crawford Young to know what to do. Instead, a sitting president terms the killings 'political'. This shows a clear cruelty and display of unintelligent wits by someone who is in charge of a typical dysfunctional state.


I decided to wait and look through the political whirlpool of Nigeria before writing this piece because topics that tilt towards ethnic, religion, sex or cultural beliefs is capable of becoming value-ladden, impressionistic and bias. Frankly speaking, if we take a keen look at what happened in Ekiti, Anambra, Adamawa, Kogi, Nasarawa and Zamfara to mention a few states, it is glaring that the perennial dispute between farmers and herdsmen could be traced to four factors. One, the issue of grazing routes. Two, a system of over centralized political structure. Three, politics of lip-service by irresponsible politicians and lastly, the natural quest for peace by the indigenous people.


Grazing routes law is one of the most haphazardly and fraudulently promulgated laws in Nigeria. In case you don't know, grazing routes are areas cutting across southern hemisphere from the North designated for cows to feed on irrespective of whoever originally occupies such places. The law originated from the Nigerian Government's Grazing Reserve Act of 1964, enacted to encourage sedenterization of nomadic pastoralists through legally secured titles. Politicians hijacked the law and appropriated lands to themselves, for farming, under the disguise of Grazing Reserve Law, Northern Nigeria No 4 of 1965. After a period of almost two decades, cattle headsmen still wander about while land owners were not compensated despite the fact that Federal Land Act of 1978 recommended fair compensation for the indigenous land owners.
Politicians stole the compensation money and they still went ahead to tell cattle herdrers that there is a route they could ply from Sokoto to Ankpa in Kogi, from Maiduguri to Asaba in Delta state for example. Whoever then stands on cows’ way simply becomes a Fulani man's enemy.


The issue of over centralized political system (disaggregative or centripetal federalism) has made it difficult for people to discuss and fossilize laws in their respective states on how to ban open grazing. Even, states that did it have been systematically sidelined by the federal government. Eg Ekiti and Benue states. Party affiliation and political prebends would not allow some foolish state Governors activate some determinant clauses in the Land Use Act of 1978.


From the first republic till date federal government has not taken any concrete action on farmers/herdsmen crisis. Even if they pretend to do, it is just a lip-service. The reason being that fundamental steps are deemed too rigorous for politicians to handle; instead, they prefer making money from the failed system than to make the system work because they will get less money if the system should work appropriately. For instance, the Justice Niki Tobi Judicial Commission of Inquiry on Jos Crisis submitted a white paper in September 2002, which indicted one Alhaji M.D Abubakar, former commissioner of police of the same state. Nothing happened after the report and previous Commissions headed by Justice Aribiton Fiberesima and that of Justice Bola Ajibola with their findings and recommendations died 'national natural deaths'. The best you can get is ... "We condemn and regret this unfortunate incident. We sincerely commiserate with the affected families. Our security agencies are on top of the matter. We shall nip it in the bud, thank you".


Nigerians relish national peace; as such, many farmers tolerated the encroachment of their farm lands. The reason farmers tend to allow this encroachment is because they believe herdsmen are normads, who must at various times, or as a result of change in weather move from one place to another.  Plateau state for instance was the most peaceful state in Nigeria until their peace was shattered by inter ethnic and farmers/herdsmen crisis. Imagine when rustlers allegedly stole three hundred cows from nomadic people that are known for indiscriminate killings as means of revenge, what do you expect? It is a pity that those that are supposed to fish out the rustlers are powerless and those that were attacked in return are helpless. 


Whether Nigerians have hope in the political system or not is not the issue. If we continue to be hopeless our hopelessness will drive the country into destruction. My position is that people must find solution to the killings. It is now the duty of Nigerians to act because different regimes have failed the country and they will continue to fail unless people stand up and behaviourally dictate who gets what, when and how. No matter how hard it may seem. Ekiti and Benue states are forging ahead in their bid to curb cow invasion of the indigenous peoples' farm lands. Other states should follow suit. Legislators must not be foolhardy in their exercise. Benue state law for instance categorically stated that 5000 hectares is not available for any single ranching, but an individual herder can apply for ranching. With such law in place federal government of any era will not be able to enforce cattle colony on the thirty six states of the federation. Why the Cattle colony in the first place? After all, Sokoto state government once said they could accommodate all the cows in Nigeria. Why not settle all the cows in Sokoto and allow indigenous people have peace.


If Nigerians want to help themselves the time is now. Pressure groups for instance command respect and attention. You can form groups on social media. Register it and bring out the groups physically during political rallies and make demands on whoever you want to vote for. Tell them what they must do, which laws they must pass and if they fail do not hesitate to vote them out. The time politicians come around and talk to us is over. We must seriously talk to them because peoples' lives are on the line.


Don't attempt to or kill any cattle herder's cow. Do not injure their cows. Do not steal anybody's cow. Do not take up arms against Fulani herdsmen because they can cause irreparable damage and they are not traceable because they do not have any tenable form of identity. Toe the path of peace and we can structurally and constitutionally address the problem. If president Buhari can go to the USA to tell Donald Trump that herdsmen do not carry guns but just sticks you should know that there exists some kind of federal and logical complicity which makes cows more important than human lives.

CORRUPTION AND SOCIETAL DECADENCE IN NIGERIA

CORRUPTION AND SOCIETAL DECADENCE IN NIGERIA

By Kay Aderibigbe

 
Corruption in Nigeria is such that is widely scoped and has incomprehensible elasticity because there is barely any facet of life in this country where corruption hasn't been passively or actively legitimated. In fact, moral, societal and religious values of our people have been washed away by the tide of corruption in such a manner that one begins to wonder whether there is place for reasoning and conscience.

The most devastating aspect of our problems as a nation is political corruption. Three issues are at the base of this enigma called political corruption. The first is what Richard Joseph termed 'Prebendal Politics'. Second is the military methods of nation-building. Third is the constitutionally entrenched idea of 'powerful political centre' (disaggregative federalism).

Prebendalism is when a public official exploits public office to favour himself and the section of the society where he emanates. Little wonder ethnic people usually rally round an indicted public official and term the indictment as a 'witch hunt' against their tribe instead of appreciating the call as purely an attack on corruption. Since ethnic people in Nigeria are aware of special privileges that are attached to public offices they then conceptualize corruption to mean something else irrespective of what the dictionary says. In one word, what is corrupt in southern Nigeria may not be corrupt in Northern Nigeria and vise versa. (Kay Aderibigbe, 2014: Political Selves and the Nigerian Self).

 The same prebendal inclination is what you see at work when the government of the day is 'selective' in the manner it goes about fighting corruption. On so many occasions we have witnessed the so called anti-corruption agencies indicting nearly absolutely public officials that are members of the opposition parties. Even, within a state, a sitting government can attack oppositions through a number of devices. The Governor can deploy state legislation, executive proclamation or borrow federal fiat if the same part, tribe men or associates hold sway at the centre. In most cases, the fight against corrupt public officials is seen as a vendetta mission when the initiator of the fight is perceived to be ethnically biased, strategically selective or out rightly partisan.

Amazingly, there is basically no such campaign against corruption that can win public acceptance in Nigeria because the structure upon which politics/political appointments and administration/career appointments are based is full of prebends which are in themselves typical of acute corruption.

Military and nation-building in Nigeria eventually happened as a great accident because the mode of military political operation is synonymous with corruption while nation-building is antithetical to the military urge for perpetuity in power. (Kay Aderibigbe 2014: Political Selves and the Nigerian Self). Military men always embark on policies that will make them rich. Since they rule by Decrees and such empower sole administrators and Head of States to exercise absolute discretion on Security Funds apparently, there is no room for accountability; while whoever blows whistle or awaken the public to the rot is hunted, jailed, killed or exiled.

The Military therefore organizes a societal framework where the public will legitimize its incursion into politics and reckon with its continuity in power as a matter of necessity and timely required because from republic to republic politicians are always unreasonable, uncoordinated, unrealistic and apparently clueless as to what to do in order to avert the problems they initiated as a result of playing politics. Over the years, nation-building activities by the military are incongruous due to our diversity while political actors and career appointees always employ such moves to their own advantage ranging from State creation, Local Government Reforms, Revenue Allocation formulas to Civil Service Reforms. E.g "the military embarked on a massive purge that depleted the ranks, the morals and technical expertise of the Nigerian Civil Service. The irony is that those that were sacked came back as contractors to those same offices- to connive with their former colleagues to steal government money. There were allegations that stores receipt vouchers were often written for goods that were never supplied into the store. (The Punch, Tue, Nov 12, 2013, page 26)

Prebendal politics and military methods of state-building are both responsible for the strict federal structure that is in operation today. A system, so constitutionally arranged that it will in all intents and purposes empower the federal government to the detriment of the constituent units. Consequently, only actors that can get the federal power has the tools to run the Nigerian state; hence the cut-throat approach to elections keeps intensifying. Invariably, political corruption is philosophically rooted in our national system, and as such cannot be single-handedly combated by a single regime that is even at variance with the realities of the day.

the current campaign against corruption by Muhammadu Buhari is a very good call, a commendable effort, and even a a necessary attempt to clean the Augean Stable but the questions are: (1) is the government going about it in the right ways? (2) is the society really in tandem with what Buhari is doing? (3) does he need more than the current mechanism of EfCC to nip the whole thing in the bud? (4) is the fight against corruption an indirect attack on the sustenance of the economy in the mid of recession? (5) where is the money/loot recovered so far? (6) how come is the Nigerian government still borrowing? (7) why hasn't any public official been jailed? (8) why are some known political thieves sparred so far? (9) why is Buhari not executing any concrete action on the dwindling economy?. These and many more questions will be analyzed in my next write up and we shall be able to forecast if Buhari is actually laying a good precedent for us as a country or he is just wasting our precious time the same way he did between 1983-1985 all to come back as an elected president in 2015 and met a more classified, sophisticated and elaborate pastern of corruption.

FAILED FISCAL SYSTEM AND POLITICAL BEGGARY

 FAILED FISCAL SYSTEM AND POLITICAL BEGGARY

By Kay Aderibigbe

The nexus between state and economy in Nigeria is such an inertial type which is why both institutions are antithetical. This is because there is rarely a meeting point between government prioritized endeavours and the needs of our people. Over the years, Nigeria has solely depended on fossil fuel and eschewed all other meaningful commercial alternative avenues that could provide as much as we earn from oil today. The resultant effect being that all the 36 states of the federation draw their yearly budgets based on the allocations from Federation Account. Ancillary palliative measures to budgetary provisions like internal/external loans, bi-lateral grants from abroad and 'federal bailout' e.g. the recent intervention fund approved by president Buhari are "occasional Jesus Christ that may or may not attend the wedding ceremony of our poor states and turn their water to wine".

 

A flashback into the era of regionalism will show how unashamed, unscrupulous  and unintelligent political administrators in this country are. Before the proliferation of states, regions are specialists in various agricultural products which served as veritable sources of income. Regional governments are the Landlords that contributed taxes/quotas to the federation which actually weakened central monopoly of power, encouraged competitive developments and enhanced our terms/balance of trade and payment in favour of Naira as a currency.

 

Fiscal system during the period of regionalism does not allow uncountable retinue of aides for state governors and parliamentarians alike. There were lesser unnecessary and non-performing ministries. Agriculture made government the largest employer of labour not fraudulent and opaque NNPC. Civils service contained ingenuous and industrious individuals with job roles not ghost workers that do nothing and earn tax payers' money.

 

Initially, multiplication of states was borne out of the calculations of military government [Gowon/Murtala] to reduce the negative effects of tribalism and ethnic chauvinism; while Babangida and Abacha created seventeen more states as political rewards, ' economic pots of soup' for their godfather loyalists. In all, state creation since 1967 does not afford vestigial states the kind of regional economic platform that could enable them exist in commensalism with federal government. More so, many state governors are thieves, foolish and too greedy that they loot through any imaginary means they could fathom. Since most of these state governors lacked creative mentalities that could serve as alternative to oil revenue, they must look up to federal government for survival and retain their second class statuses.

 

As undismayed with decadence in state management as state governors remain, they still take after federal method of politicking such as creating avalanche of ministries with uncountable political appointments that are surplus to requirement. Collapse in oil price mete out an attendant effect  on Nigeria and states have fallen into financial crisis. federal government and states are all indebted. Almost 24 states are owing their workers between 5 and 16 months.

 

The wage bill of these states is almost 75% of their monthly allocations; little wonder they couldn't embark on any meaningful developmental projects, but borrow from anywhere possible even, to pay salaries. This national embarrassment prompted Buhari to approve a sum of #713.7 billion bailout for the federal and states governments to offset workers' salaries. Out of which #413 is an intervention fund while #300 is a soft loan from CBN.

 

 The important questions are the following [i] for how long will this ‘political babihanla’ continue on the part of the states? [ii] when will state governments in Nigeria develop their internal capacities to generating wealth? [iii] for how long would oil crisis degenerate into financial crises for Nigeria? [iv] what is the plan of the current federal government on economic diversification? [v] must state governments employ/appoint so many people that contribute nothing to the economic development of the state but receive salaries in the name of carrying files? [vi] what happens to these backward-thinking states after bailout? [vii] since the dwindling oil price is still nose-diving would Buhari continue to source from the proceeds of NLNG to fund states with dysfunctional economies?

 

My submission is that fiscal federalism would go a long way to put to rest the case of dearth/shortage of finance and financial impropriety; economic imbalance; weeding out of non-performing sections of the civil service; promote internal competition among states; create job opportunities; enhance mass market; diversify the economy; silence or reduce the ubiquity of federal character principle and also promote state-centred against nation-centred federalism.

 

In a simple language, different states have mineral resources; they should be constitutionally empowered to put those into industrialization, and remit taxes to federal government. States with little or no resource(s) can resort to pure agriculture or energy-based production. Against this backdrop, federal politics will be less chaotic; since there is no much goodies to suck, as a result, the centre will be administrative-driven, purposeful and rule-oriented. The reliance on oil revenue will reduce drastically. Moreover, financial problem will not warrant ‘political babihanla’ that will continue to encourage ineptitudeness, dormancy, over-reliant on federal government and external loan which will only add to the backward movement of the Nigerian economy.

 

Without this, failure of public policies will not be seen as a setback but rather, as a propellant for government functionaries to arise and stereotyped Nigerians as refugees in their own country despite the volume of illegitimate largesse enjoyed by political office holders in the midst of fiscal imbalance that pervaded the country.

AFTER THE RAIN WILL THERE BE SUNSHINE FOR NIGERIA?

AFTER THE RAIN WILL THERE BE SUNSHINE FOR NIGERIA?

By Kay Aderibigbe

It rained a lot of socio-economic hot water on Nigerians between 2010 and 2015; and up till now our political garments are still wet. Some had serious economic cold, some incurred irreparable physical damage while some died. The rain gathered storm at the time majority crave it but we didn't foresee discomfort and pains contained in it because our people gave their hearts to the government of Jonathan the way we are all singing 'change' now.

 

The manner in which Jonathan's government dilly-dallied without purposefulness on so many important public issues simply eroded his popularity and paved the way for shift of allegiance by Nigerians, except those that eat directly from federal government e.g. legislators, oil marketers, political officials and co. One thing has to be underlined in whatever perspective anybody might want to assess Mr. Jonathan's government, that is the position of 'prebendal politics'. May be that Muhammadu Buhari took notice of by importing Eric Bourdon's line of "I belong to everyone because i belong to no one" in his inaugural speech.

 

Prof. Richard Joseph in 1987, in his "Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria: The Rise and Fall of the Second Republic" stated that "prebendalism is when political office holders put the state resources in their care to their own personal use because they do not perceive the people as the rightful owner of the resources". Politics in Nigeria since first republic is typical of prebendal mannerism because of ethnic division that warranted dispersed federal system of government. Consequently, federalism is the root of political failure and dysfunctionality.

 

The situation seems irremediable because  the nucleus of federalism in Nigeria is 'federal character', being the basis for political appointment into all arms of government. I referred to the concept of 'office-for-the-highest-bidder' in my last article as the basis for party representation, really , that method is profoundly erected on the principle of federal character or quota system. This is why each state must produce Ministers, Directors of Ministries and parastatals whether they are daft, dumb, capable or not. Since we placed ethnic representation above capability and efficiency the end result is likely to be dysfuntionalism.

 

In comparative politics what we normally ask is why did a system succeeded or failed? Why did many regimes failed in Nigeria? It is simple logic. The structure of governance is the rudder that regularly sinks the ship of Nigerian state. In the face of this kind of evidence it is difficult to maintain that all actions and processes of thought will automatically lead to methods of transition from political upheaval and economic disintegration to its abatement.

 

Certain problems await the Buhari's government. Firstly, 'it will be thrown into indefinite actions'. A society erected on the platform of ethnic chauvinism and religious bigotry will always expect more from the regime that has little to operate with. Secondly, political regime cannot be divorced from the idea of elite-self-rule. In fact, Buhari himself is a product of the same system. Since political office holders are quite aware of the 'ring nature of the political business' as such they produce rule that are integral to the safety and continuity of the ‘elite self-propagation in politics’. These two different bipods i.e. the poor, but expectant and the rich but conservative and greedy with power, form the opponents against which the government we are expecting changes from would have to wrestle.

 

Salvation campaigns by politicians since second republic had yielded nothing, rather, it ended in more bastardization of the system and economic strangulation of the people. I still wallow in abject confusion and surprise when our people look up to the government for redemption. The same politicians are recycled through partisan politics at different times, and the same people still feature in our political lives all the time.

This is the most favourable sort of case where there is a prima facie ground for terminating state of 'satisfaction' enjoyed by politicians; for in most cases the impediment to good governance is studiously planted in the system while whoever intended to rule well is simply made look like a nuisance to the public since our people believe that politicians are heretics of their own principles.

 

In one word, changes required in Nigeria is more than a wish. It is going to be a social re-engineering; a concerted effort; legislative struggle and ideological war against abnormality and aberration that has become a model of governmental operation since the era of oil boom. The questions in my mind are many: How do we start? How will Buhari go about it? Is it a case of we against them? What do we have to give as Nigerians? Can Buhari fight it alone? Is he going to disappoint us? Is he going to fail like his predecessors? Will he become a public enemy through his policies? I think only time will tell.

 

THE ELECTION FEVER: POLLS, RESULT AND VIOLENCE ALL PREDETERMINED

THE ELECTION FEVER: POLLS, RESULT AND  VIOLENCE ALL PREDETERMINED

By Kay Aderibgbe 

Majority of our people have been made to adjust their allegiances to either of the two leading political parties (APC and PDP) in the current scheme of politics in Nigeria today. The raison d'eter being the 2015 general elections. Hardly would one see anything without political implications these days. Imagine when you are told to come back for your debt that is due after election. In fact, political issues are deliberately blown out of proportion by politicians. Nigerians in their large numbers suddenly became politically conscious as a result of number of reasons. Factors such as the country's economic condition; security situation; cost and standard of living; religious affiliations; political deprivation; terrorism; meaninglessness of education achievement; general defrauding of our people through the use of public utility; and what has been vigorously argued as the perennial failure/success of the present political regime accounted for the reactionary posture of the politically aware public.

 

As perfectly plausible as these factors seem today they have always remained the same policy narratives that have been featuring on our political agenda ever since the days of Balewa. How come Nigerian Politicians do not think positively about the situation of things if every thinker ought to be greatly influenced by the circumstances of his day? The circumstances surrounding electoral politics in Nigeria cannot be discussed outside the larger concept of ecology of Nigerian politics. The said ecology of politics was a product of thoughts, doctrines and proclamations that were reluctantly arrived at. This body of rules form the substructure upon which every other driving forces of Nigerian politics was laid.  

 

"Such foundation is the idea of political federalism which was informed by the ever-complex and ill-perceived tribalcentric concepts that
underpinned the formation of the state itself" (Aderibigbe, 2014)
The problem nowadays is that "the ecology of Nigerian politics revolves around visible and invisible ethno-cultural, religious, class cum political mentalities that have in the recent times transgenically metamorphosed the Nigerian people from the overwhelming notion of Nigerianity to that of 'individual selves', who are primarily and absolutely concerned with self and other 'extra selves' who can unquestionably work intermingled for the same 'self-propagation' at the detriment of the state. (Aderibigbe, 2014).

 

Let me identify certain issues that altogether form the skeletal framework of the organization of Nigerian electoral politics. This can at least help to unravel the annoying subject of 'do or die' affair and 'electoral violence'. One, the elitists mindset and the idea of 'class in itself'- which is the bedrock of any legislation made for us. Two, the psychological mind frame of religious and ethnocultural defence- which is the problem of the common people. Three, the composition, power and value of the electoral regime- which is de jure factor in who gets what. Four, economic fulfillment, and lastly national security- which affect both the rich and poor and how they fare.

 

The perception of election by the political class is different from the expectations of an ordinary Nigerian because the democracy that hosted election in the first place came at a cost (political mortgage), and also feature party system of 'political office for highest bidder'. The dichotomy therefore, is the reality where politicians employ numerous antics including fascination for policy failures in order that politicians can always stay around and preach 'change' or 'transformation' that will not encapsulate our problems.

 

My position is that Nigerian politicians and the so called administrators are socio-economic individual selves which through politics have stood above an average Nigerian and the collective self of the Nigerian state. The reason is obvious, "different kinds of government do not derive their legitimacy from the people, but rather from the pool of elitist individual wealth which was in the first place stolen from the state and reinvested into the process of retaining governmental powers". (Aderibigbe, 2014)

This is why elections in the past have been characterized with violence and would continue to result into chaos. Certainly, those state actors that invested their money are irrevocable committed to be dogmatic, serious and desperate to win; haven realized that political power is the only possible and viable means through which they can steal, store, display and buy cheap respect in the public realm with the fund meant for the development of the state.

 

Since the process of electoral politics in Nigeria is mostly characterized with interactions that have been schematically calculated by actors that do not expect any outcome other than positive. Politician ensured that programmes that aid peoples' participation, electoral manipulation, and organization of crises, are inherent with the organization of economic life. It can  therefore be deductively summarized that it is inchoate, inconclusive and also an inertia argument to have concluded that the popularity or public support for a political party will determine the success or failure of the party because politicians have game plans that have been segmented into (i) economic deprivation (ii) religious/ethnic divisionism (iii) intimidation (iv) rigging and (v) violence, all erected on 'money politics' which must not fail. So, where is the place of those aromatic mass of our people singing CHANGE or TRANSFORMATION?. I guess another four years in the miasma of deprivation as usual. What a shame!